Ankara’s Expanding Military Footprint in Somalia Raises Regional Questions
Somalia recently approved a historic defense deal with Turkiye, allowing the country to defend its coastline and build a navy for the next decade. This partnership has sparked discussions about the regional impact of the tie-up and why Ankara is expanding its military presence overseas, particularly in the Red Sea.
Turkiye has been actively involved in training Somalia’s soldiers for several years and operates its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu. The recent defense agreement aims to enhance Somalia’s military capabilities, promote stability, and protect its interests through security, economic, and humanitarian efforts.
The agreement, which is yet to be ratified by Turkiye’s parliament and president, is seen as a strategic move by Ankara to become a key player in the Horn of Africa. Hakan Akbas, a senior advisor at Albright Stonebridge Group, believes that Turkiye’s bold foreign policy aims to establish key military and economic partnerships to secure its interests in the region.
The deal gives Turkiye significant leverage to reshape Somalia and the Horn of Africa. Rashid Abdi, chief analyst at Sahan Research, views Turkiye as Somalia’s top strategic partner, especially in rebuilding the Somali navy and patrolling its maritime Economic Protection Zone.
However, tensions in the region persist, particularly after Ethiopia and Somaliland reached an agreement granting Addis Ababa access to the Red Sea. This move has raised concerns about how Turkiye will balance its relationships with both countries, especially regarding maritime violations.
The agreement with Somalia is part of Turkiye’s broader strategy in Africa, focusing on bolstering trade and economic ties before providing military training and high-end weapons systems. Turkiye’s participation in multinational efforts to prevent piracy attacks in the Gulf of Aden and off the coast of Somalia demonstrates its commitment to regional security.
While experts acknowledge the strategic significance of the deal, they caution that its implementation will require substantial investment and logistical capabilities from Turkiye. The country may need to increase its naval forces to effectively patrol the vast region and protect Somalia’s exclusive economic zone.
Despite the potential benefits of the agreement, there are political risks involved. Turkiye has traditionally avoided involvement in intra-African conflicts and may face challenges in safeguarding Somali interests by force. Protecting Somalia’s exclusive economic zone could also lead to clashes with other nations in the region.
In conclusion, Turkiye’s defense deal with Somalia reflects its growing ambition to play a key role in the Horn of Africa. While the partnership offers mutual benefits for both countries, it also poses challenges that Ankara will need to navigate carefully to maintain regional stability and protect its interests effectively.