Sunday, October 29, 2023

Israel’s Leader Resigned 50 Years Ago Due to Major Intel Failure


A Surprise Attack: Israel’s Intelligence Failure and Calls for Resignation

In a shocking turn of events, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, catching the Israeli military off guard. This incident bears a striking resemblance to the Yom Kippur War that took place exactly 50 years ago. The Yom Kippur War saw Arab coalition forces led by Egypt and Syria successfully push Israel out of the occupied Golan Heights and the Sinai Peninsula. Israeli intelligence had noticed the Egyptian military buildup but mistakenly believed it to be military exercises, a mistake that was repeated in the recent attack by Hamas.

Prior to the Hamas attack, Israeli security chiefs held a high-level meeting to discuss whether Hamas’s irregular activity was a prelude to an invasion or simply a military exercise. Instead of anticipating an invasion, the chiefs decided to wait for more intelligence. This decision proved to be a grave error, leading to a surprise attack that left the Israeli military scrambling to respond.

The intelligence failure was not limited to Israel alone. U.S. intelligence agencies were also caught off guard during the Yom Kippur War. Robert Gates, then a high-ranking CIA analyst, learned of the invasion through a radio broadcast while providing a briefing on the unlikelihood of military conflict in the Middle East. Declassified documents revealed that U.S. intelligence analysts had indeed examined the possibility of an attack but incorrectly judged that it would not occur, despite clear signs indicating otherwise.

The Yom Kippur War is often referred to as an “intelligence failure” by historians. It serves as a reminder of the dangers of underestimating the potential for conflict and the importance of accurate intelligence analysis.

In both instances, the leaders of Israel faced criticism for their failure to heed warnings. Golda Meir, Israel’s prime minister during the Yom Kippur War, faced calls for resignation after ignoring warnings from King Hussein of Jordan about an imminent war with Egypt and Syria. Similarly, Benjamin Netanyahu, the current Israeli prime minister, is under fire for disregarding repeated warnings from Egyptian intelligence. Egypt’s intelligence minister personally called Netanyahu to warn him of an unusual and terrible operation, but the warning went unheeded.

The aftermath of the recent attack has seen a surge in public dissatisfaction with the Israeli government and Netanyahu. According to a recent poll, 86% of Israelis believe that their government and Netanyahu are to blame for the attack. More than half of Israelis believe that Netanyahu should resign.

The editorial board of Ha’aretz, Israel’s oldest daily newspaper, holds Netanyahu responsible for the attack and has called for his resignation. The newspaper published an editorial titled “Netanyahu: Resign Now!” condemning his handling of the situation.

The intelligence failure and subsequent attack serve as a wake-up call for Israel and its leaders. It highlights the need for improved intelligence gathering and analysis to prevent such surprises in the future. The consequences of failing to act on credible warnings can be devastating, both in terms of human lives lost and the political fallout that follows.

As Israel reflects on this major intelligence failure, it must take steps to address the shortcomings in its intelligence apparatus and ensure that similar mistakes are not repeated. The country’s security and stability depend on accurate and timely intelligence assessments. Only by learning from past failures can Israel hope to prevent future surprises and protect its citizens effectively.

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