It has been almost a year since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, leading to a catastrophic toll of death and destruction. Thousands of civilians have been killed, tens of thousands of soldiers from both sides have been killed, and millions have been displaced. As we move into the second year of the conflict, both sides are preparing for large-scale offensives, with new recruits and sophisticated hardware being sent to the front line.
The declared goals of the war differ between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has made it clear that its goal is the liberation of all Ukrainian territories currently occupied by Russia, including the Crimean Peninsula. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has even stated that he will vacation in Crimea once the Ukrainian army achieves victory. Some Ukrainian officials have gone even further, calling for the breaking up of the Russian Federation and the encouragement of independence movements within its borders.
Russia’s declared goals were to “liberate” Ukraine’s Donbas region and to “de-nazify” and “de-militarise” the country. The Russian army has failed to fully occupy the two Donbas regions, but it has seized large chunks of two other Ukrainian regions in the south, Zaporizhia and Kherson, thus securing a land bridge to Crimea. In October, Putin signed legislation formally annexing those regions to Russia. The Kremlin has deliberately left its definition of “victory” in Ukraine quite vague, allowing itself a much wider range of acceptable outcomes on the battlefield.
The West has been ambiguous about how the war should end. The official rhetoric from Washington is that it will support the Ukrainian government and army “for as long as it takes” in order to secure a decisive victory over Russia. In Europe, some have been more cautious, with French President Emmanuel Macron saying that Russia should be defeated, but not crushed. Ukraine has received close to $40bn in military aid from the West, including $30bn from the United States alone. Last month, NATO countries allowed the supplies of modern German and US tanks to Ukraine, though in limited numbers.
A recent poll of European Union policymakers shows that European capitals differ widely on what outcome in Ukraine war they see as realistic. Only a handful of the respondents appear to perceive Kyiv’s “full liberation” as a likely outcome. Many expect that Russia will retain control over some Ukrainian territory.
There are far too many unknowns to make any confident predictions of where Ukraine and Russia will find themselves after another year of carnage. But there are some scenarios that appear more likely. An overwhelming Ukrainian victory would be a triumph of justice, but it is also a Russian roulette scenario, because Putin’s defeat may prompt him to use nuclear weapons. Russian victory will mean a decisive defeat of the West and the world order upended by an aggressive autocracy. But Russia is unlikely to achieve that given its less-than-impressive battlefield performance so far.
Between these two extremes lies a whole range of more realistic scenarios, based on a new equilibrium that will emerge after this year’s season of Russian offensives and Ukrainian counteroffensives. Russia is likely to retain some Ukrainian territory, but future battles will decide how much and also how permanently – or, in other words, at what human and economic cost it will be able to hold on to them.
An important factor is the enormous difference in social expectations in Russia and Ukraine with regards to the outcome of war. The Russian society is lukewarm about Putin’s military adventurism and territorial expansion, while Ukrainian expectations are extremely inflated. Almost any kind of compromise could threaten Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government, which took a lethal gamble by refusing to implement the humiliating Minsk agreements and resolving to put up a fight instead of succumbing to Putin’s ultimatums. Unless their subject is Russia’s full capitulation, any viable peace negotiations will involve Ukraine ceding territory.
What lies ahead this year feels very dark. Even brushing aside the very real nuclear threat, it is hard to avoid the nagging feeling that tens of thousands will die in order to prove that this is a stalemate which is best resolved at the negotiating table. It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will be able to claim victory by improving its positions compared to those envisaged in the Minsk agreements or whether it will have to accept a compromise involving ceding some territory to Russia.