Tunisia Prepares for Presidential Election Amidst Constraints on Candidates
Tunisia has begun accepting candidate submissions for its upcoming presidential election on October 6. However, experts argue that there are significant constraints on potential challengers to incumbent President Kais Saied. Saied, who was democratically elected in 2019, orchestrated a sweeping power grab in 2021, leading to changes in the conditions and requirements for running for office.
To qualify for the ballot, candidates must gather a large number of signatures, making it difficult for many hopefuls to meet the criteria. According to Amine Kharrat, a political analyst at independent observatory Al Bawsala, the conditions have become more stringent. Isabelle Werenfels, a North Africa expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, also noted that the requirements have been hardened.
Furthermore, several potential candidates are unable to obtain the initial candidacy form because they are currently in prison. Among them are Issam Chebbi, leader of the centrist party Al Joumhouri, and Ghazi Chaouchi, head of the social-democrat party Democratic Current. These politicians, along with over 20 of Saied’s opponents, have been detained since a series of arrests in February 2023. Abir Moussi, a vocal critic of Saied and head of the Free Destourian Party, has also been detained on similar charges since October last year. Amnesty International has labeled these arrests as a politically motivated witch hunt.
According to an anonymous expert, everything has been set up to sideline credible candidates who could pose a real threat to Saied. In 2022, Saied led a revision of the constitution, consolidating executive power in the presidency’s hands and reversing hard-won rights in the birthplace of the Arab Spring uprisings. Kharrat believes that many factors are reducing the credibility of the upcoming election, including the candidacy criteria, the delayed announcement of the election day, and a law punishing the spreading of false news.
The law, Decree 54, has been used to prosecute more than 60 journalists, lawyers, and opposition figures, according to the National Syndicate of Tunisian Journalists. Amnesty International Secretary General Agnes Callamard has expressed concern over the increasing violations and government repression since Saied’s power grab. However, despite these challenges, many individuals still aspire to submit their candidacies.
Key potential candidates include Kamel Akrout, a retired military admiral, and Mondher Zenaidi, a former minister who presents his experience as an asset for debt-stricken Tunisia. Last week, K2 Rhym, a famous Tunisian rapper, also announced his intention to run. If Akrout or Zenaidi are pushed out of the race, it would be seen as a referendum on Saied’s rule.
The nature of the next regime will be defined by the outcome of the election. If Saied wins by a wide margin in the first round, he is likely to become even more authoritarian. However, if he faces strong opposition, he may be more inclined to compromise. The ability of the opposition to unite behind an alternative candidate will play a crucial role. Left-wing movements and Ennahdha, the Islamist-inspired party that dominated Tunisian politics following the 2011 uprising, are still considering whether to boycott the election or see it as an opportunity to challenge Saied.
It is challenging to gauge support for Saied or any other candidate prior to the vote due to a ban on political polls. While Saied remains popular among working-class Tunisians, experts believe that his popularity has declined since the 2019 vote. Recent rallies in support of Saied have seen low turnout. A Tunisian watchdog, I Watch, reported that Saied had failed to fulfill 87.5 percent of his electoral promises over the past five years. Nonetheless, Saied has intensified his campaign, emphasizing his sacred duty toward the homeland and blaming conspirators and traitors working under foreign influence.
As Tunisia prepares for its presidential election, the constraints on potential candidates pose significant challenges to the democratic process. The outcome of the election will not only determine the country’s leadership but also shape the future of Tunisia’s political landscape.