Strategic Deals Could Reshape the Middle East, Says Israeli Journalist
The Middle East is a region simmering with tensions, but strategic deals launched by powers such as Saudi Arabia could potentially reshape the landscape, according to an Israeli journalist speaking at the World Economic Forum. The panel discussion, titled “Anticipating the Middle East in 2024,” focused on various hot-button issues including the Gaza conflict, Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Jane Harman, chair of the US Commission on the National Defense Strategy, emphasized the need for the US to embrace a pathway to two states in order to manage the Gaza conflict effectively. She argued that without this approach, conflict management would be impossible and Iran would become an outlier in the region.
Mahmood Sariolghalam, a professor of international relations at the National University of Iran, expressed his belief that no Arab country would accept Iranian political or military dominance in the region. He also suggested that Iran is wasting its resources on promoting a foreign policy that focuses on military power rather than capital markets, platform companies, national infrastructure development, and economic integration with the rest of the region.
Barak Ravid, an Israeli journalist with US news website Axios, highlighted the potential for Saudi-Iranian convergence on regional matters to pave the way for peace. He noted that both countries have shared interests, particularly in Yemen, and have shown a willingness to reach a long-term truce. Ravid also argued that Saudi Arabia’s efforts to normalize relations with Israel are not contradictory to its rapprochement with Iran.
Sariolghalam pointed out that Tehran is playing a balancing act through its network of militias, sending messages to its enemies while preventing escalation in its strongholds. He also suggested that Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group supported by Iran, is not interested in escalating tensions with Israel due to the vulnerability of Lebanon as a country and society.
However, Ravid warned that the situation could change, and a potential Hezbollah-Israel war could be even more devastating than the Gaza conflict. He called for more robust efforts from the US to contain the situation between the two sides, as the border between Lebanon and Israel remains volatile.
Despite the conflicts in the region, Sariolghalam predicted that Gulf Cooperation Council countries will continue to thrive economically throughout 2024. He emphasized that economic progress presents a major opportunity for the region alongside continuing conflicts.
Ravid cautioned that despite the prospects for Saudi normalization with Israel, momentum in Tel Aviv is moving towards a one-state reality that fails to provide a long-term solution for Palestinians. He highlighted the disparity in rights between settlers and Palestinians in the West Bank as evidence of this trend.
In conclusion, strategic deals between regional powers have the potential to reshape the Middle East and alleviate tensions. However, challenges remain, and it is crucial for international actors to actively engage in conflict management and promote economic progress in the region. The path to peace and stability in the Middle East requires a comprehensive approach that addresses political, economic, and social factors.