Iran’s Shadow War with Israel: A Closer Look at Recent Developments
Iran and Israel have been engaged in a shadow war for decades, but recent events have brought this conflict into the spotlight. On April 13, Iran launched a combined drone and missile attack in retaliation for a suspected Israeli airstrike on its embassy annex in Damascus. This attack resulted in the deaths of two senior commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The IRGC, conceived as the defenders of the 1979 revolution, has evolved into a powerful institution with vast political, economic, and military powers. One of its elite branches, the Quds Force, is responsible for foreign operations. However, recent setbacks, including the elimination of key officers and financiers in Syria and Lebanon, have raised questions about the Quds Force’s capabilities.
The Quds Force plays a crucial role in Iran’s regional influence through its support of various militias known as the “Axis of Resistance.” These militias include groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and others. The recent losses suffered by the Quds Force have had a significant impact on its operations.
Political analyst Eva J. Koulouriotis believes that the recent setbacks faced by the Quds Force are significant. She points out that the elimination of key officers in Syria and Lebanon has weakened the force’s strategic position. This has prompted Iran to take direct action against Israel to establish new ground rules of deterrence.
Iran’s direct attack on Israel on April 13 was a bold move aimed at creating a new equation in the conflict. IRGC chief Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami stated that any attack on Iranian interests would be met with retaliation from Iran. However, Israel has not shown signs of being deterred by Iran’s actions.
Recent incidents, including explosions at military bases in Iraq and suspicious objects flying over Isfahan, indicate that tensions between Iran and Israel remain high. The Quds Force’s role in these events is crucial, as it continues to operate in various countries across the region.
Despite the losses suffered by the Quds Force, experts believe that its influence and power remain significant. The force’s extraterritorial nature and close ties to Iran’s supreme leader make it a formidable entity in the region. Reports suggest that the Quds Force may have between 5,000 and 40,000 personnel, highlighting its strength.
While Israel’s targeted assassinations of Quds Force commanders have had an impact, they have not significantly altered Iran’s behavior or regional influence. Hezbollah, one of Iran’s key allies, remains a potent force with a large arsenal of missiles and rockets.
Looking ahead, the dynamics of the shadow war between Iran and Israel are likely to evolve further. Iran’s recent actions signal a willingness to confront Israel directly, while Israel continues to target Iranian interests in the region. The role of the Quds Force will be crucial in shaping the future of this conflict.
As tensions continue to escalate, the shadow war between Iran and Israel shows no signs of abating. The recent developments highlight the complex nature of this conflict and the significant role played by the Quds Force in shaping events across the Middle East.