Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, much has been said about Putin’s miscalculations. However, it is important to address US President Joe Biden’s miscalculations in Ukraine as well. Biden took the moral high ground, framing the conflict in Ukraine as a global one between democracy and autocracy, yet he pleaded with world autocrats to join the crusade and disregarded America’s own illegal wars. He also underestimated the power of Russian nationalism and rejected Moscow’s fears of NATO expansion towards its borders as baseless excuses for Russian imperialism.
Biden also underestimated Russia’s military endurance, betting on Ukrainians defeating it just as the Afghans defeated the Soviet Union with help from the United States. However, for Moscow, Ukraine is far more important and strategic than Afghanistan, considering its shared history and geographic proximity. From Putin’s perspective, Ukraine is vital for Russia’s national security and his regime’s survival.
Biden has also overestimated Ukraine’s capacity for war. The war has thus far been fought conventionally on Ukrainian territory, allowing the greater Russian firepower to overwhelm Ukraine’s smaller military and destroy much of its economy. These setbacks have not deterred the US and its allies from doubling down.
If the much-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive somehow succeeds in extracting a dramatic victory from the jaws of defeat, this could push Russia to use nuclear weapons in response, wreaking havoc in Ukraine and the rest of Europe. Even if Moscow resorts to deploying tactical nuclear weapons, the ramification of such a move for European – indeed world – security and peace, cannot be overstated.
Lastly, just as Putin underestimated Western unity in their support of Ukraine, Biden underestimated the rest of the world’s indifference to what appears – from the perspective of the Global South – as a protracted European conflict that is Europe’s problem. As the rest of the world continues to trade with Russia, Western sanctions are failing to change Moscow’s calculus.
In sum, both Russia and the West have failed to pursue diplomacy as purposefully and stubbornly as they have pursued war. Both sides are digging in for the long haul, stoking fears of nuclear annihilation, and framing the conflict as a “win or die” situation. Considering the irreconcilable differences between Russia and the West, the war is not likely to end in a peace agreement, at least not in the foreseeable future.