The recent violence in the Serb-majority north of Kosovo has once again put the Balkan country in the international spotlight. Images of pipe-wielding and stone-throwing Serb militant nationalists assaulting NATO peacekeepers in the town of Zvecan have raised concerns about a potential armed conflict in Europe. However, while another Balkan war is not imminent, the situation in Kosovo is still alarming. The United States and the European Union have played a role in abetting a dangerous new phase of Serb nationalist militancy in Kosovo and the Western Balkans more broadly.
Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, backed by the US, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy, also known as the Quint. However, the two sides remain as far apart on a settlement as ever, as the clashes in Zvecan illustrate. The Serbian leadership and large segments of the public who have been inundated by more than three decades of revisionist state propaganda exist in a world of their own. Neither Belgrade nor a large part of the Serbian public accepts that the Milosevic regime was the chief architect of the Yugoslav dissolution or of the subsequent decade of conflict that engulfed the region. They falsely claim that Serbia did not wage wars of aggression against Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo between 1991 and 1999. They also falsely maintain that Serbia did not orchestrate a systematic, genocidal campaign of extermination, terror, and expulsion against the non-Serb population of Bosnia between 1992 and 1995, which disproportionately affected the Bosniak community.
The US and the EU have sought to secure a normalization deal between Pristina and Belgrade over the past 15 years. However, they seem uninterested in curbing Russian influence; instead, they have sought to accommodate Moscow-backed militant nationalists. The West has concluded that it is not worth the time or effort to confront people like Vucic, Dodik, or Covic in a region as peripheral to its interests as the Western Balkans. The US and the EU have instead opted for a kind of Kabuki policy, maintaining a performative posture of opposition to militant nationalists but expending political and diplomatic capital to help them achieve their aims in the fleeting hope that this will pacify them.
The result has only been a more emboldened form of nationalist extremism in the Balkans, most of it sponsored by the West. Unfortunately, both the US and the EU appear wholly committed to this course, as evidenced by their surreal reactions to the violence in Zvecan. That will likely remain the case until domestic publics, including the Bosnian and Kosovar diasporas in the West, and their legislative allies can effectively make the case for why Western double-dealing in the Balkans is dangerous to Europe’s stability and security.
In light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, one would think that there would have been severe political and diplomatic repercussions for Serbia and its proxies due to their close links with the Kremlin and their own expansionist machinations in the Western Balkans. But precisely the opposite has taken place. Republika Srpska’s Dodik has faced no repercussions for meeting regularly with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, whom US and European officials have repeatedly called a “war criminal”. The entity is still receiving funding from the EU for various development projects, and although Dodik is under US and UK sanctions, he continues to openly lobby US officials in Washington.
The Bosnian Serb leader is also not the only anti-state actor in Bosnia to benefit from a curiously high degree of Western appeasement. Dragan Covic, the leader of the hardline Croat nationalist HDZ party who also enjoys the patronage of the Kremlin, seems to have his interests defended directly by the internationally appointed Office of the High Representative (OHR). Last October, the OHR used its expansive executive powers to rewrite Bosnia’s election laws in his favor and then in April of this year amended the constitution of the Federation entity to install an HDZ-dominated government.
In Bosnia, as in Kosovo, the US and the EU seem uninterested in curbing Russian influence; instead, they have sought to accommodate Moscow-backed militant nationalists. Why? Because the West has concluded that it is not worth the time or effort to confront people like Vucic, Dodik, or Covic in a region as peripheral to its interests as the Western Balkans.
The violence in Kosovo is a reminder that the situation in the Western Balkans remains fragile. The US and the EU must take a more proactive approach to address the underlying issues and prevent further violence. They must also recognize the danger of accommodating militant nationalists and Russian influence in the region. The West must prioritize Europe’s stability and security over short-term political gains.