Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was warmly welcomed by his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing during his three-day state visit, the first in two decades. Raisi stood in front of a large map of Iran with “Persian Gulf” marked prominently in what appeared to be a message to Xi, who had signed a joint statement with leaders of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in December that irked Tehran. The Iranian president sought to advance relations with China by taking dozens of officials to Beijing, including six ministers, the country’s top nuclear negotiator and its central bank chief.
Iranian state media reported that 20 substantial agreements were inked during the trip under the 25-year comprehensive cooperation document Iran and China signed in 2021. These included deals on trade, mining, the automotive industry, agriculture, tourism and the transfer of technology, worth at least $3.5bn. Raisi reportedly had a meeting with representatives of several large Chinese companies, which were not named by Iranian media.
The Iranian petroleum ministry said talks with China are continuing on trading crude oil for goods, developing a natural gas project in southern Iran and advancing oil field projects. Reports also emerged that Sinopec, China’s state-owned energy giant, has pulled out of the significant Yadavaran oil field project near the Iran-Iraq border.
Raisi’s visit does not change any of the “underlying factors” that limit meaningful bilateral cooperation, such as US sanctions and unrest and protests in Iran. Bill Figueroa, a research associate at the Centre for Geopolitics at the University of Cambridge, believes that the only scenario in which there will be a dramatic expansion of Sino-Iranian economic relations is one in which the sanctions are lifted and the political situation in Iran becomes more stable.
Xi supported Iran’s successful bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the powerful BRICS – which groups Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – which is still considering Tehran’s request. The two countries also signed a joint communique that railed against “efforts by certain governments to politicise the work” of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Iran and promised cooperation on ensuring regional security and fighting “terrorism”. The Chinese president accepted an invitation from Raisi to visit Iran at a later date, which would mark his first visit since 2016 as part of a tour of the Middle East.
The three-day state visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Beijing marked the first such visit by an Iranian president to China in two decades. Raisi sought to advance relations with China by taking dozens of officials to Beijing, including six ministers, the country’s top nuclear negotiator and its central bank chief. Iranian state media reported that 20 substantial agreements were inked during the trip under the 25-year comprehensive cooperation document Iran and China signed in 2021. These included deals on trade, mining, the automotive industry, agriculture, tourism and the transfer of technology, worth at least $3.5bn.
The Iranian petroleum ministry said talks with China are continuing on trading crude oil for goods, developing a natural gas project in southern Iran and advancing oil field projects. Reports also emerged that Sinopec, China’s state-owned energy giant, has pulled out of the significant Yadavaran oil field project near the Iran-Iraq border. However, a petroleum ministry official denied these reports, saying that negotiations with Chinese counterparts are continuing and there has been no official declaration by Sinopec that it is withdrawing.
Raisi’s visit does not change any of the “underlying factors” that limit meaningful bilateral cooperation, such as US sanctions and unrest and protests in Iran. Bill Figueroa from the Centre for Geopolitics at the University of Cambridge believes that the only scenario in which there will be a dramatic expansion of Sino-Iranian economic relations is one in which the sanctions are lifted and the political situation in Iran becomes more stable.
Xi supported Iran’s successful bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the powerful BRICS – which groups Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – which is still considering Tehran’s request. The two countries also signed a joint communique that railed against “efforts by certain governments to politicise the work” of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Iran and promised cooperation on ensuring regional security and fighting “terrorism”. The Chinese president accepted an invitation from Raisi to visit Iran at a later date, which would mark his first visit since 2016 as part of a tour of the Middle East.
Despite the symbolism of Raisi’s visit to Beijing and the agreements signed between Iran and China, it remains to be seen how much their ties will develop under sanctions while talks to restore the 2015 nuclear accord remain deadlocked. The underlying factors that limit meaningful bilateral cooperation are still present, such as US sanctions and unrest and protests in Iran. Chinese projects in Iran have traditionally not done very well or been scuttled by sanctions, while investors have been spooked by the arrest of Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou for allegedly violating US sanctions on Iran. Furthermore, Chinese capital is also competing with neighbouring countries like Saudi Arabia and the GCC states who offer a more stable and lucrative environment for investment.
The only scenario in which there will be a dramatic expansion of Sino-Iranian economic relations is one in which the sanctions are lifted and the political situation in Iran becomes more stable. Until then, Xi’s rhetoric in support of Iran is unlikely to bring any real change to their relationship.