Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2020, the Wagner Group has suffered a staggering 30,000 casualties, with an estimated 9,000 fighters killed in action. According to US intelligence, half of these deaths have occurred since mid-December, as fighting in the eastern city of Bakhmut intensifies.
The UK Ministry of Defence estimates that Russian forces have likely suffered up to 200,000 casualties since the start of their invasion. The high casualty rate has had a negative effect on the Russian military’s combat effectiveness and is likely prompting Russian officials to continue crypto-mobilization efforts.
Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin recently claimed that his forces had taken control of Paraskoviivka north of Bakhmut. However, there has been no independent confirmation of this claim and the Ukrainian general staff’s evening report did not mention the advance on Friday.
The battle for Bakhmut has been ongoing for months and is expected to continue. In an effort to protect civilians, the Ukrainian government has urged all Bakhmut residents to flee, as five civilians were killed and nine injured earlier on Friday. Many elderly residents are refusing to leave their homes and birthplace, while some sympathise with Russia.
The US estimates that 90 percent of Wagner Group fighters killed in Ukraine since December 2022 were convicts, sent to war without training or equipment. Despite recent comments from Wagner’s founder that he had stopped recruiting Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine, it appears that the group continues to rely heavily on convicts.
The devastating cost of the conflict is not sustainable and it is possible that Wagner may end up being successful in Bakhmut, but it will prove of no real worth to them because it is of no real strategic value. The UK Ministry of Defence and the US National Security Council are monitoring the situation closely and have urged all parties to find a peaceful resolution.