Minsk and Moscow will commemorate the day of unity on Sunday, marking the signing of a treaty in 1996 between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin aimed at forming a Union State of the two Slavic neighbours. While some proposals, such as a shared currency, never materialised, the Union State became the basis for gradually deepening cooperation between the two countries.
Belarus had previously shown interest in relationships with the West, but this changed in 2020 when Moscow came to Lukashenko’s rescue during huge anti-government street protests. Russia offered to send in troops to support the crackdown on dissent, although ultimately no Russian troops were involved. Over the last year, Belarus has stood loyally by Russia’s side and recently agreed to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons, signalling stronger ties.
Belarus became independent with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and was once a reforming Soviet deputy. However, Lukashenko’s tenure has been a throwback to the Soviet past, with Belarus maintaining a largely state-run, centralised economy and a tightly controlled society. Lukashenko has led the country uninterrupted for almost 30 years and is often referred to as “Europe’s last dictator”.
In recent years, Lukashenko has been growing closer to Russia, particularly since the war in Ukraine. The largest wave of repression in Belarus started following large-scale protests in 2020. Mass protests erupted three years ago after Lukashenko declared himself the victor in the election, winning more than 80% of the popular vote – a majority the opposition thought was unlikely. There were widespread reports of torture as security forces suppressed the rallies.
Although Minsk’s foreign policy generally follows Moscow’s lead, Lukashenko had tried to keep his options open with the West. He had invited Western observers to military exercises held with Russia and rolled out visa-free travel for Western citizens. In 2019, he even eyed closer ties with NATO. However, after the protests in 2020, he firmly threw his lot in with the Kremlin by claiming that Crimea, the peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, was Russia’s territory.
The Union State project, even if not realised in full, had a few perks. In 2014, a customs union meant Belarusian smugglers could help Russia evade Western sanctions by importing goods such as Italian cheese and reshipping them to Russia as “Belarusian parmesan”, with no checks. After the anti-Lukashenko protests, the Union State process accelerated. Most important was military cooperation. In the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, tens of thousands of Russian troops were deployed to Belarus under the guise of “training exercises”.
Although most Belarusians still tend to think positively towards Russia, society has become more polarised; many view Lukashenko as little more than Putin’s puppet. “Targeting his own population after 2020, Lukashenko shot himself in the foot and has no longer leverage on Putin as he remains his only close and strong political ally,” said Belarusian researcher Alesia Rudnik.