The ongoing conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia has been escalating since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, sparking violence along the shared border. The tit-for-tat exchanges have raised concerns about the possibility of a full-scale war breaking out in the region.
Escalation of Violence:
The violence since early October has resulted in the deaths of at least 455 people in Lebanon and 25 people in Israel. Israel has launched nearly 4,900 attacks in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah has retaliated with around 1,100 attacks on Israel and its occupied territories in Lebanon. The continuous attacks have displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border.
Potential for Full-Scale War:
With the conflict showing no signs of abating, fears of a full-scale war have been mounting. Israeli officials have been calling for military action to push Hezbollah away from Israel’s northern border. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has indicated that a decision regarding Hezbollah’s attacks is imminent, raising concerns about a possible escalation.
Hezbollah’s Response:
Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has vowed to continue the militia’s campaign as long as the conflict in Gaza persists. Nasrallah has warned of “surprises” for Israel in the event of a full-scale war. Despite the escalating tensions, Hezbollah has conditioned any agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza, highlighting the interconnected nature of conflicts in the region.
Consequences of War:
The potential for a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah could have severe consequences for both parties. While Hezbollah has the means to cause significant damage to Israeli cities, it is crisis-ridden Lebanon that stands to lose the most. The country’s fragile economy and political instability could be further exacerbated by a destructive war, making it challenging to rebuild and recover.
Path to Peace:
Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to US President Joe Biden, has proposed a road map to peace between Israel and Hezbollah. While achieving lasting peace may be challenging, establishing understandings and boundaries could help reduce the risk of conflict. However, Hezbollah’s conditions for any agreement highlight the complex dynamics at play in the region.
Conclusion:
As tensions continue to escalate between Israel and Hezbollah, the risk of a full-scale war remains high. The consequences of such a conflict would be severe for all parties involved, with Lebanon facing significant challenges in the aftermath. Finding a path to peace and de-escalation is crucial to avoiding further violence and instability in the region.