The Impact of Israel’s War in Gaza on Wisconsin Democrats
More than 1 in 5 Wisconsin Democrats have expressed that Israel’s war in Gaza is influencing their vote in the state’s primary election on Tuesday. This sentiment was revealed in a recent poll released on Monday, which also highlighted that 71 percent of respondents strongly support an immediate and permanent ceasefire in the conflict. The findings shed light on the significant role that foreign policy issues, particularly those related to the Middle East, play in shaping voter decisions.
President Joe Biden’s handling of the war has also emerged as a crucial factor for voters, with 11 percent stating that it could impact their vote in November if there is no change in course. Additionally, nearly 14 percent indicated that Biden’s approach to the conflict could sway their decision. These numbers underscore the importance of foreign policy stances in shaping voter attitudes and electoral outcomes.
The poll, commissioned by Listen to Wisconsin, a campaign aimed at mobilizing protest votes to push for a change in White House policy on Gaza, revealed that around 26 percent of Wisconsin Democrats support the initiative. This campaign advocates for voters to cast a ballot for an “Uninstructed delegation” rather than a specific candidate, signaling a growing dissatisfaction with current foreign policy approaches.
Reema Ahmad, a Palestinian and Muslim American organizer with Listen to Wisconsin, emphasized that a significant portion of Wisconsin Democrats’ primary votes are influenced by opposition to the White House’s policy on Gaza. Ahmad warned that failure to address voter demands for a permanent ceasefire could jeopardize Biden’s prospects in Wisconsin, a state where elections are often decided by slim margins.
In the 2020 election, Biden won Wisconsin by a narrow margin of 20,000 votes, highlighting the state’s significance in national politics. Campaign organizers are hopeful that the Tuesday primary will yield a substantial number of “uninstructed” votes, similar to efforts seen in other states like Michigan.
The poll also revealed stark generational divides among Democratic voters in Wisconsin regarding Biden’s handling of the war. While just under half of Democrats approved of his approach, 65 percent of respondents under the age of 29 strongly disapproved of it. This misalignment underscores the challenges faced by political leaders in navigating complex foreign policy issues that resonate differently across demographic groups.
Despite criticisms from some political pundits who dismiss the Uncommitted campaign as inconsequential, survey data indicates that a significant number of respondents had voted for Biden in the 2020 primaries. Waleed Shahid, a Democratic political strategist, highlighted the fracture within Biden’s party exposed by the poll results. He emphasized that with electoral margins likely resembling those of 2016 rather than 2020, Biden cannot afford to alienate tens of thousands of his own voters over the Gaza conflict as the November election approaches.
The findings of the poll underscore the intricate interplay between foreign policy decisions and electoral outcomes, particularly in battleground states like Wisconsin. As voters increasingly prioritize global issues in their decision-making process, political leaders face mounting pressure to address concerns related to conflicts abroad. The results of the Wisconsin primary will offer valuable insights into how foreign policy considerations are shaping voter behavior and influencing electoral dynamics.