Saturday, November 11, 2023

Yemen’s Government Sidelined by Saudi-Iran Deal?

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The possibility of an end to the war in Yemen has emerged following the re-establishment of ties between Riyadh and Tehran, but the question remains as to whether forces within the country will have their say. While the Saudis are talking to the Iranians and the Houthi rebels are talking to the Saudis, the Yemeni government appears to be talking to no one. Rumours suggest that months-long negotiations between Saudi officials and the Houthis are bearing fruit, with some speculating that a full Saudi withdrawal from Yemen may be on the cards, while others suggest the possibility of a new ceasefire to formalise the current, relatively frozen nature of the conflict. However, the government and other local actors on the Saudi-led coalition side, including the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), point to a problem: during the latest round of negotiations, they feel like they are on the outside looking in, with little influence.

Anti-Houthi figures in Yemen have expressed concern that they are being sidelined and potentially abandoned by Saudi Arabia. Amr al-Bidh, an STC official and the son of the last president of South Yemen, has said that the group’s “friends in Riyadh [had] isolated everyone”, adding that it would lead to “scepticism among friends and stakeholders”. The STC is one of the primary forces on the ground in Yemen, backed by the United Arab Emirates and in de facto control of the temporary capital, Aden, but it has little knowledge of what is being said behind closed doors. The government appears to be in the same boat with one official telling The Associated Press news agency this year that he was worried about what concessions could be made to the Houthis.

Yemeni President Rashad al-Alimi has sought to allay fears that the government is being sidelined by insisting that he supports the current talks, saying they are merely paving the way to future negotiations between his government and the Houthis. However, those who see the current talks as evidence of the impotence of Yemen’s anti-Houthi forces point to the murky circumstances of al-Alimi’s own accession to the presidency, which came as a surprise in itself, with little prior indication from former President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi that he was on his way out. Instead, Hadi resigned in April last year after Saudi Arabia withdrew its support for him.

While the absence of the Yemeni government and the STC from the negotiating table may suggest that they lack their own agency, this is not necessarily true. Each party has its own goals and interests and will not simply acquiesce to a “final deal” that does not serve its objectives. What can appear to be subservience to external actors is more a result of a need for that support on the battlefield – but they can still try to press on without that backing. It will, therefore, ultimately be necessary for all groups to be included in the next stage of negotiations, rather than simply being brought along to rubber stamp a pre-arranged agreement, because it should not be taken for granted that a Saudi withdrawal from Yemen will put an end to the fighting there.

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