Leaked reports claiming to be classified US intelligence documents related to the war in Ukraine have been met with scepticism and denials from US spy agencies and several US allies. Photos of the classified files began circulating widely on Russian social media channels last week, but some were published on the gamers’ website Discord in February and March. The CIA, NSA, and US Defense Intelligence Agency have denied the authenticity of the reports and have launched an investigation into the source of the leak.
The leaked documents have also caused embarrassment for two US-Middle East allies—Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Egypt denied a Washington Post report citing a leaked document dated February 17 that said it had reached a secret agreement to supply Russia with 40,000 rockets, gunpowder and artillery shells. Another leaked document focuses on the United Arab Emirates, saying Abu Dhabi had agreed to leak US and United Kingdom intelligence to curry favour with Russia. The UAE said suggestions it had deepened ties with Russian intelligence were “categorically false.”
More worryingly for the Western alliance backing Ukraine, some of the leaked documents suggest Kyiv is not set for a sweeping victory in its anticipated spring counteroffensive, and its air defences are vulnerable. A purported US intelligence assessment from early February warned of “force generation and sustainment shortfalls,” and the likelihood of only “modest territorial gains”. Ukraine has formed several new so-called storm brigades ahead of the counteroffensive and was advertising the formation of a seventh National Guard brigade, which would be the ninth “Offensive Guard” in the armed forces.
A New York Times report quoted a leaked document predicting that ammunition for Ukraine’s Soviet-era air defence systems would soon be depleted, exposing the interior of the country to aerial attack. Ukraine says it is currently able to shoot down 75 percent of the missiles Russia sends, and is trying to convince its allies to send F-16s to bolster its air defences. One of the documents claimed that Ukraine had suffered between 124,000 and 131,000 dead and wounded, five times higher than its official death toll. Ukraine military intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov said those reports were false or inaccurate.
The bloodiest battles of the war continued to rage in the eastern city of Bakhmut, with Russia launching dozens of ground assaults there each day. Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said Bakhmut’s defenders had “exhausted the Wagnerites,” referring to the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, “so the enemy is now forced to involve special forces and airborne assault units in the battles for Bakhmut”. He said Russian forces had “switched to the so-called ‘Syrian’ scorched-earth tactics”, destroying buildings and positions with air strikes and artillery fire.
Ukraine’s general staff said Russian forces had suffered heavy losses in the Bakhmut area of Donetsk. Ukraine has suffered significant losses in Bakhmut as well, and has justified its decision to defend the city as strategic. Although Ukrainian officials admitted Russian forces had a significant artillery advantage in the city, they were reportedly also running out of ammunition or conserving it. Russian forces have been trying to surround and choke off Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut.
Serhiy Cherevatyi, spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern forces, said the destruction of a bridge to the village of Khromove, 2 kilometres (1.2 miles) west of Bakhmut, created a problem in supply lines the Ukrainian forces were working to overcome. Ukraine’s general staff said Russian forces in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia were evacuating people in anticipation of Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive. “Russian occupants have activated preparation for the evacuation of local people to the temporarily occupied territorials of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea,” the general staff said. “In particular, in Melitopol and Skadovsk, the enemy organised a survey of local people for possible evacuation.”