The ongoing conflict in Sudan between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is causing concern for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, which have vested interests in the country’s future. Sudan’s strategic location on the Red Sea provides access to sub-Saharan Africa and global trade routes and supply chains via the Bab al-Mandab strait, making it important for GCC countries’ investments, food security, and other domains. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are the two GCC states with the most influence in Sudan, particularly since the overthrow of longtime Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in 2019.
Both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have been working to increase their sway in Sudan, with the UAE being particularly involved. Late last year, Sudan’s military authorities and two UAE-based companies signed a $6bn preliminary agreement for the construction of the Abu Amama port on the Red Sea. This project is part of the UAE’s wider policy in the Red Sea and Africa, as it attempts to expand its sphere of influence and build up a network of strategic outposts. For the UAE, Abu Amama would be a critical node in controlling ports in the Red Sea.
However, with seven international borders, Sudan’s violence has the potential to spill into many other countries, making it a concern for GCC officials who want to see diplomatic efforts aimed at winding down the violence before it spirals further out of control. From a GCC perspective, the risks of the crisis having destabilizing effects on the Gulf and Egypt are particularly concerning. The leadership in Cairo supports al-Burhan, while Abu Dhabi backs Hemedti, creating a possibility of different Arab and African actors exacerbating the conflict by arming the different sides in Sudan.
The United States has long coordinated with the UAE and Saudi Arabia on Sudan, despite some tensions over other issues such as oil production. The Biden administration has been coordinating its diplomatic efforts with the so-called Quad countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, UK, US) on efforts to establish a civilian government in Sudan. However, the tensions between the army and the RSF had been a problem brewing for years, and everyone turned a blind eye, particularly the United States.
The military in Sudan sought to disempower civilians after its October 2021 coup, a cause that united different factions within the security sector, including Hemedti. Now, with civilians removed from the political process, the inevitable clash between Hemedti and al-Burhan erupted. The US has a role in this crisis as it outsourced Sudan’s transition to regional partners, chiefly Saudi Arabia and the UAE. There is no holistic plan for how to help Sudan’s plan for transition to democracy, and at the ultimate end, it’s democracy that will bring stability to Sudan.
In conclusion, the ongoing conflict in Sudan is causing concern for GCC states due to their vested interests in the country’s future. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have been working to increase their sway in Sudan, particularly since the overthrow of longtime Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. However, with seven international borders, Sudan’s violence has the potential to spill into many other countries, making it a concern for GCC officials who want to see diplomatic efforts aimed at winding down the violence before it spirals further out of control. The United States has long coordinated with the UAE and Saudi Arabia on Sudan, despite some tensions over other issues such as oil production. However, the tensions between the army and the RSF had been a problem brewing for years, and everyone turned a blind eye, particularly the United States. At the ultimate end, it’s democracy that will bring stability to Sudan.