In recent years, Turkey has sought to reset its foreign policy by engaging with countries it had long been at odds with, including the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Israel. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has even suggested he would meet with his Syrian counterpart to foster peace in the region. However, the devastating February 6 earthquakes have provided an opportunity for Turkey to mend ties with yet more of its neighbours.
Greece and Turkey had been on the brink of collapse before the quakes, with both countries gearing up for elections and tensions in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean escalating. But the scale of destruction in Turkey changed everything, and Greece responded by sending thousands of tents, beds and blankets to the disaster zone, as well as deploying rescue teams, doctors and paramedics. Private Greek citizens have also donated what they can to charities working in affected areas and shared messages of solidarity on social media. This shift in attitude has been welcomed by Turkey, leading Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias to comment on the “shift in Ankara’s tone”.
This is not the first time “earthquake diplomacy” has been used to improve relations between Turkey and Greece. In 1999, following a deadly quake in Turkey’s Marmara region, then-Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem and his Greek counterpart George Papandreou embarked on a journey to improve relations between the two countries. The consequent rapprochement paved the way for the EU’s decision to grant Turkey official candidate status.
The earthquakes have also led to an easing of tensions between Turkey and Armenia. Armenia sent food, medicine, drinking water and other emergency supplies to devastated cities and towns soon after the quakes, as well as research and rescue crews. This aid crossed into Turkey through a land border that had been sealed since the early 1990s. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan visited Ankara on February 15 to discuss ongoing efforts to normalise ties between Armenia and Turkey.
The question remains whether this “earthquake diplomacy” can truly transform Turkey’s relations with its two neighbours. The prospects are mixed. Greece has much reason to try and improve its relations with Turkey, but underlying issues remain unaddressed, such as Turkey signing a memorandum of understanding with Libya to prospect for offshore oil and gas in parts of the Eastern Mediterranean claimed by Greece and Egypt. Meanwhile, there is no sign of a breakthrough in divided Cyprus, where Greece and Turkey have been at loggerheads for decades.
Armenia has even more reason to try and improve its relations with Turkey following its 2020 defeat against Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, which revealed the perils of its dependence on Russia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held his first-ever meeting with Erdogan last July, while Azerbaijan has been blocking the only land route between the Armenian-run territory and Armenia since December, causing a shortage of medicine, food and other essential supplies. As long as Azerbaijan continues its attempts to expand its territory, a major step forward on the Armenia-Turkey front will likely have to wait.
Ultimately, while the immense suffering and loss Turkey experienced as a result of the February 6 earthquakes led its neighbours to put aside deep-rooted disagreements and historic grudges to offer support and solidarity, current attempts at earthquake diplomacy are unlikely to produce long-term, sustainable improvements in bilateral relations. With time, harsh political realities will kick in, and we will see a return to old tensions and confrontations.