The recent attack on a Russian A-50 military surveillance aircraft at an airfield near the Belarusian capital of Minsk has raised questions about the increased cooperation between Minsk and Moscow. According to Belarus partisans and members of the exiled opposition, the attack was carried out by drones. Alexandr Azarov, leader of Belarusian antigovernment organisation BYPOL, was quoted as saying that the attackers were Belarusian and are now safe outside the country. Franak Viacorka, a close adviser of opposition figurehead Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, tweeted that it was a successful special operation.
The Beriev A-50 aircraft is a Russian airborne early warning aircraft with the ability to track up to 60 targets at a time. It is believed that front and central parts of the aircraft as well as the radar antenna were damaged as a result of two explosions.
Belarus has not taken a direct role in Moscow’s attack on Ukraine, but President Alexander Lukashenko did allow Belarusian territory to be used as a staging post by Russian forces for their February 24, 2022, invasion. He also said that Belarus was ready to do so again if needed. Kyiv has accused Russia of using Belarusian airstrips as a base to launch attacks on Ukraine and has voiced concerns for months that Belarus could join the war on Russia’s side.
In response to these concerns, Russia and Belarus have set up a joint military unit in Belarus and have held numerous exercises. A number of Russian warplanes and airborne early warning and control aircraft have also been deployed to Belarus. This has only heightened tensions between the two countries, and has led to speculation that the recent attack on the A-50 aircraft could be part of a larger conflict.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is due to begin a state visit to China on Tuesday, days after Beijing published a 12-point framework for peace in Ukraine. It remains to be seen how this visit will affect the relationship between Belarus and Russia, and whether it will lead to further tensions or a resolution of the current conflict.