Saturday, October 28, 2023

New Nigeria: Possible?

Date:

This Saturday, Nigerians will go to the polls to elect their next president. Although Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) has the highest momentum, it is uncertain whether he will be the one to declare victory. His remarkable achievement of becoming a leading contender for the presidency in a short amount of time with limited funds is a testament to his hard work and dedication.

The election was initially expected to be between two old warhorses: Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Tinubu has been working his way to the front of the queue for more than two decades, while Atiku has been moving from party to party in search of a presidential ticket. Tinubu’s two-term Lagos governorship and role in building the Muhammadu Buhari presidency have positioned him as the candidate to beat.

However, Tinubu’s candidacy is hindered by numerous red flags. Allegations of money laundering and drug dealing have been looming over him since the 1990s, and the source of his immense wealth remains a mystery. In addition, his age, ancestry and education history are all in doubt. His deteriorating health, evidenced by his unsteady gait, shaky hands and repeated gaffes on the campaign trail, raises concerns that if elected president, he may struggle to do justice to the job.

Atiku also appears to be offering more of the same. Despite being a favourite in 2003, he conceded the PDP’s candidacy to his boss and has been trying to make up for this mistake ever since. He is 76 years old and his party is no longer the all-conquering force it once was. Moreover, he has a long trail of corruption allegations in his past.

This is why Labour Party’s Peter Obi stands a chance of causing an upset on Saturday. He boasts a large army of young supporters who say “a new Nigeria is POssible”, and he has never faced corruption allegations – a rarity among Nigeria’s political class. Calm, measured and respectful in his ways, Obi offers a welcome alternative to the hyperbolic performances of other leading candidates.

However, Obi’s campaign is also facing several significant and perhaps unsurmountable problems – problems that are mostly of his own making. He remained in Atiku’s PDP until May 25, 2022, until it became clear that Atiku would win the party’s presidential primary three days later. Ditching the PDP so late and positioning himself as the new order’s poster boy just nine months before the election has left him with a mountain to climb. His late entry into the race also caused him some practical problems, as the deadline for voter registration in Nigeria ended on August 31, 2022, just a few months after he began campaigning as the Labour Party candidate. This means, all of Obi’s latter-day supporters cannot vote to elect him if they did not register for a voter card a whopping six months ago.

Voters without party affiliations see this Saturday’s election as an opportunity for the emergence of a new Nigeria – one where citizens don’t have to buy their own currency at the black market, queue for fuel despite their country being blessed with crude oil reserves, feed off the crumbs from politicians’ tables, know a “big man” to stand any chance of securing a government job, or watch helplessly as their collective wealth gets stolen. Many believe Peter Obi is the man who can make all this happen. But while the popularity and competence of candidates will have some influence over the result of Saturday’s election, it is obvious to many Nigerians that in the end, it will once again be political capital, religion, ethnicity, and most importantly, wealth that determines who will be the country’s next president.

This Saturday, Nigerians will decide whether a new Nigeria is really “POssible”. Peter Obi has worked hard and dedicated himself to becoming a leading contender for the presidency in a short amount of time with limited funds. He offers a welcome alternative to other leading candidates with his calmness, respectfulness and lack of corruption allegations. However, his late entry into the race has caused him some practical problems and it remains uncertain whether he will be able to overcome these obstacles and secure victory on Saturday. Ultimately, it will be political capital, religion, ethnicity, and most importantly, wealth that determines who will be Nigeria’s next president.

Latest stories