Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, one of the brightest stars in Turkey’s opposition, is facing a potential jail sentence of three to seven years and a political ban on charges of tender-rigging. The case began less than three weeks after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a presidential runoff vote, extending his more than two-decade rule. Imamoglu has already been sentenced to more than two years in prison in 2022 for insulting public officials and faces a political ban if that ruling is upheld. Calls have grown louder for the opposition’s defeated presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu to resign as chairman of Imamoglu’s Republican People’s Party or CHP. Many see Imamoglu, who has called for “total change,” as the strongest contender to replace Kilicdaroglu.
The CHP and other opposition parties it cooperated with in 2019 to secure the victory in Istanbul will also need to decide whether they will unite again for local elections scheduled for March 2024. Reports have suggested that the center nationalist IYI Party may request the CHP support its candidate in some metropolitan cities like in 2019, but in CHP strongholds this time. The role of pro-Kurdish Green Left Party or YSP also remains key for victory in local elections after they helped the CHP claim Istanbul and Ankara in 2019 by not fielding candidates. But party officials have suggested they may not follow that strategy next year after they suffered a drop in their votes in last month’s elections.
The internal politics of the CHP could overshadow its preparations for next year’s local elections, according to Tanju Tosun, political science professor at Ege University. “If the internal rifts within the CHP continue until local elections, candidates from the ruling AK Party (AKP) could defeat opposition candidates in many cities,” he said. Erdogan’s critics say he has bent Turkish courts to his will and many see the cases against Imamoglu as an attempt to hinder him politically. Erdogan and his AK Party deny this.
Imamoglu shot to the center of domestic politics after he won the 2019 mayoral elections in Istanbul, delivering Erdogan’s AKP their biggest defeat since they came to power in 2002. As his five-year term draws to a close, Imamoglu faces a fresh blow to his prospects of renewal. The trial is set to hang over the opposition as it tries to regroup and rally disheartened voters ahead of local elections in March. The decision on who will replace Kilicdaroglu will depend on who can rally more support within the party.