Friday, November 3, 2023

Iran and Saudi Arabia: From Rivalry to Rapprochement Timeline

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After years of tension and conflict, Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to restore ties and reopen diplomatic missions. The agreement was reached during talks in Beijing between top security officials from the two rival Middle East powers. The restoration of ties is expected to ease tensions in the Gulf and help resolve conflicts in Yemen and Syria, where the two countries have backed opposite sides in proxy wars.

The adversarial history between Iran and Saudi Arabia dates back to the Arab Spring in 2011, when Saudi Arabia accused Iran of inciting protests in Bahrain against the royal family. Iran denied the accusation, but tensions continued to escalate as the Syrian war erupted in 2011. Iran backed President Bashar al-Assad, while Saudi Arabia backed the rebel groups. The two countries also clashed over the civil war in Yemen, with Saudi Arabia backing its internationally recognised government and targeting Houthi rebel strongholds aligned with Iran.

Tensions reached a boiling point in 2015 when a stampede in Mecca during the annual Hajj pilgrimage killed about 2,000 pilgrims, including over 400 Iranians. Iran accused the Saudi government of mismanaging the event, and tensions escalated further when Saudi Arabia executed prominent Shia leader Nimr al-Nimr, a critic of the Saudi government. Protesters in Tehran stormed the Saudi embassy, and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned of “divine vengeance” for Nimr’s execution. Riyadh then cut ties with Tehran, and Iran suspended participation in the Hajj.

In 2017, Saudi Arabia and its allies imposed a blockade on Qatar, accusing it of being too close to Iran and supporting “terrorism”. Saudi Arabia also intercepted a ballistic missile over Riyadh International Airport that it claimed was supplied by Iran and launched from territory held by Houthi rebels in Yemen. The prime minister of Lebanon resigned unexpectedly from Riyadh, citing Iran’s “grip” on his country through Hezbollah. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, which was praised by both Saudi Arabia and Israel.

In 2019, Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for a series of attacks on targets in the kingdom, including one that struck the heart of the country’s oil industry. Iran denied involvement, and Yemen’s Houthi rebel group claimed responsibility for the attacks. When Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani was killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad in 2020, official Saudi media celebrated the attack.

However, in April 2021, Iran and Saudi Arabia held their first direct talks since they cut off official ties. Between April and September last year, four rounds of talks were held, mostly mediated by Iraq and Oman. After a fifth round of talks, a top adviser to Khamenei called for Saudi and Iranian embassies to be reopened. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia for talks with Mohammed bin Salman.

In February 2022, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited China to meet Xi, and the following month, Riyadh and Tehran announced they had decided to re-establish ties. The restoration of ties is expected to have a positive impact on the region, as it will help ease tensions and resolve conflicts in Yemen and Syria. It is also a positive step towards stability in the Gulf region.

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