Satellite imagery and commercial ship-tracking data show oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz recovered in September to their highest levels since the Iran war began in February 2026, led by expanded loadings from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. At the same time, multiple trackers report iranian exports have been sharply curtailed under a renewed U.S. blockade.
- Commercial satellite and trade-intelligence data show exports through the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to the highest levels since the Iran war began, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
- Iran’s oil exports remain sharply reduced; trackers reported large year-on-year drops in August and suggest the U.S. blockade has been effective at restricting Tehran's outflows.
- Rebound mechanisms include US-escorted transits, offshore ship-to-ship transfers, and some vessels transiting with AIS transponders off, creating measurement uncertainty.
- The recovery has eased some supply pressure but regional shipments remain several million barrels per day below pre-war levels, keeping upward pressure on prices and leaving the recovery fragile.
What the data say
Trade intelligence firm Kpler estimated regional crude exports rose to about 12.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, the highest monthly figure since the conflict began, but still roughly six million bpd below the pre-war baseline of 18.8 million bpd in February 2026. Kpler also calculated that around 7.4 million bpd of energy trade moved via the Strait of Hormuz that month.
Independent analyses using commercial satellite imagery and tanker-counting techniques produced a similar picture. NDTV’s Datafy analysis of satellite images found heavier tanker loading at major Gulf terminals — including Saudi Arabian ports such as Ras Tanura, and terminals in Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE — and suggested nearly 9 million barrels per day were loaded at seven monitored export terminals in August, with higher activity into September.
Those movements occurred even as vessel-tracking services and reporting show Iran’s own crude exports plunged after U.S. sanctions and a reinstated blockade in mid-July. OilPrice.com cited Kpler and other trackers in reporting an estimated 80% year-on-year drop in Iran’s August loadings, and some trackers estimated Iranian flows out of the Persian Gulf were close to zero that month.
How flows are happening despite the danger
Three operational patterns emerge from the reporting: increased escorted transits, ship-to-ship (STS) transfers outside the Strait, and clandestine movements with transponders switched off.
- US naval escort and an UN-authorised shipping corridor close to Oman have allowed some vessels to transit under protection; US officials have said escorts have helped restore traffic in parts of the route.
- Shippers and state operators are using ship-to-ship transfers off the Gulf coast of Oman so tankers can avoid passing directly through contested waters while still moving cargoes from Gulf ports to vessels bound for Asia and other markets.
- Satellite imagery has detected tankers in the Strait that are not reflected in AIS-based datasets, suggesting some commercial traffic is deliberately hiding movements to reduce risk of targeting.
Regional contributors and LNG traffic
Saudi Arabia and the UAE were the primary drivers of the rebound in September. Kpler reported Saudi shipments were on track to reach roughly 5.4 million bpd in the month, with Ras Tanura loadings rising markedly compared with August. The UAE and other Gulf producers also contributed to the higher aggregate figure.
Qatar-linked LNG movements have also shown signs of resumption through Hormuz. InternationalFinance reported multiple Qatar-origin LNG tankers transited or reappeared outside Hormuz in late September, carrying cargos from Ras Laffan to destinations including India and China, after a period of very limited visible LNG transits in August.
Iran’s exports remain constrained
Despite the broader rebound, several ship-tracking services and industry reporting agree that Iran’s own export volumes remain heavily reduced. OilPrice.com, citing Kpler and other trackers, described an abrupt fall in August loadings from roughly 1.7 million bpd in August 2025 to about 260,000 bpd in August 2026 — an 80% decline — and noted some trackers estimated zero Iranian exports reaching beyond the Persian Gulf in that month.
Sources disagree on exact Iranian volumes and on whether small amounts of Iranian crude are transiting stealthily with AIS off; Kpler’s aggregated port and tanker-load data imply very little Iranian outflow through Hormuz in late summer and early autumn. Those differing assessments reflect the limits of available signals: public AIS feeds miss vessels that shut off transponders, while satellite imagery and port counts do not capture cargoes after transfer at sea.
Market and political implications
The partial reopening of physical flows through Hormuz relieved some of the worst-case supply fears but has not returned regional exports to pre-war levels. InternationalFinance’s analysis put regional shipments about six million bpd below February’s baseline, a gap that helps explain the persistence of elevated oil prices: Brent briefly retouched triple digits in September as attacks and disruptions elsewhere in the region raised risk premia.
For oil-importing economies in the Middle East and Asia — including the United Arab Emirates, which hosts major refining and trading hubs — the rebound reduces immediate logistical pressure and helps stabilise fuel supply chains. But the recovery is fragile: continuing attacks on alternative routes, such as Red Sea shipments and pipelines, and the risk of renewed strikes in the Gulf could quickly reverse gains.
Unresolved questions and data caveats
Available evidence combines AIS-based tracking, satellite imagery, port loading counts and commercial estimates; each method has blind spots. AIS monitoring undercounts transits when ships switch off transponders; satellite imagery provides visual confirmation but is limited by coverage and timing; and terminal load counts assume tankers are filled to typical capacities. Analysts caution that headline bpd figures should be read as estimates, not precise measurements.
It also remains unclear how much Iranian crude is moving indirectly — for example, loaded onto third-country vessels or blended and blended cargoes re-exported — versus being held in floating storage. Reporting highlights that Iran’s ability to project power in the Strait has been degraded by strikes on coastal radars and other infrastructure, but Tehran’s public posture remains defiant and officials have indicated they could retaliate for attacks or blockades.
What to watch next
- Weekly Kpler and LSEG port and tanker reports for updated loading and transit estimates through Hormuz.
- Satellite imagery releases from commercial providers to verify tanker movements that do not show up on AIS feeds.
- Any statements from Gulf state operators — notably Saudi Aramco, ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) and QatarEnergy — on changes to export routing, STS practices or use of alternative ports such as Yanbu or Ruwais.
- U.S. and Iranian military activity near the Strait, which will determine how securely escorted transits can continue.
“The movement suggests that Iran’s ability to control shipping through the strait has weakened in recent weeks.” — summary of satellite and tracking analyses reported by NDTV and Kpler.
For the UAE, the rebound in Hormuz traffic matters directly: a steadier flow through the strait helps the Emirates’ refining, re-export and bunkering sectors and reduces the need for costly detours. But the market and security environment remain volatile, and traders and shipping operators in the region will watch transits and naval postures closely for signs that the recovery is durable or merely temporary.