Goldman Sachs: Gulf oil exports have recovered to over 60% of pre-war levels, but gap remains

Goldman Sachs analysts estimate total crude and oil-product exports from Gulf states have climbed to roughly 15–16 million barrels per day, or just over 60% of the level the region was supplying to world markets before the US–Iran conflict began, according to a client note and reporting by CNBC on Aug. 28, 2026.

What Goldman Sachs says

Goldman’s research team, led publicly by Daan Struyven, reported the rebound from a March low when exports fell to about 5–6 million barrels per day. The bank’s analysts calculate current flows sit 7–8 million bpd below pre-war volumes, but 5–6 million bpd higher than the March trough. They also say the rise in so-called “dark” crossings — vessels operating with transponders off — and more frequent ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz make real-time measurement difficult and mean official estimates are often revised upward later.

Why measurement is uncertain

Goldman’s note, as reported by CNBC, highlights three practical tracking problems: (1) more tankers turning off Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders so they do not appear on public ship-tracking platforms; (2) limited satellite coverage that can miss some vessel movements; and (3) increased ship-to-ship transfers that hide the original origin of barrels. The analysts say these practices are consistent with producers and shippers adapting to the security risks created by the war.

How the rebound compares with other estimates

Goldman’s 15–16 million bpd estimate is in line with other reporting noting a recovery to roughly two-thirds of pre-conflict flows. CNBC’s article cites Goldman directly; independent commentators cited in other coverage have put Strait of Hormuz transits in a similar band, and US official estimates of transit volumes have been reported in the range of 8–10 million bpd. Where sources differ is in methodology: Goldman adjusts for later-revealed “dark” movements, while publicly available trackers often report lower, near-real-time figures.

Market and regional implications

Analysts at Goldman argue the adaptation of shipping practices has helped limit the immediate upward pressure on global crude prices compared with the peak disruption earlier in the conflict. That said, the bank warns that persistent insecurity and continued use of stealth transport methods mean shipping markets are pricing in disruptions extending into 2027, a point the CNBC report attributes to Goldman.

Regional implications are multi-fold for Gulf states including the United Arab Emirates: exporters have recovered a material portion of flows to sustain revenues but remain exposed to a multi-million-barrel-per-day deficit versus pre-war trade. The shortfall — 7–8 million bpd by Goldman’s estimate — matters for global supply buffers and for fiscal planning in hydrocarbon-dependent economies.

What remains unresolved

• Exact volumes: Because many tankers operate without AIS and ship-to-ship transfers obscure origin data, no single public dataset captures total flows in real time. Goldman’s figure is an estimate that reconciles later detections and proprietary analysis; it is not a definitive audit.
• Duration of disruption: Goldman’s analysts say markets are pricing disruptions into 2027, but they do not predict a specific end date for conflict-related shipping risks.
• Impact on refined products and LNG: Reporting noted that while crude exports have rebounded significantly, flows of LNG and refined fuels remain weaker — an issue with separate market and price dynamics that could affect Europe and Asia differently.

Timeline — key flow points cited by analysts

1. Pre-war baseline: Goldman’s comparison is to the region’s exports before the US–Iran war began (the precise pre-war daily total was not published in the sources provided).
2. March trough: Exports fell to about 5–6 million bpd during the most acute phase in March, per Goldman’s clients note reported by CNBC.
3. Late August rebound: Goldman estimates flows have recovered to roughly 15–16 million bpd by Aug. 28, 2026.

Practical takeaways for the UAE and regional actors

For UAE policymakers and energy companies, the recovery to more than 60% demonstrates operational resilience but underscores that sizable export capacity remains offline or diverted. Short-term priorities likely include securing export routes, coordinating with international naval protections where applicable, and accelerating alternative logistics such as pipeline projects — a strategy Goldman has previously identified as one way to reduce reliance on Hormuz-sensitive routes.

For markets and traders, the lesson is to treat headline flow estimates with caution. Near-real-time trackers may understate volumes because of dark movements; conversely, later upward revisions will change supply balances and price expectations. Traders and energy-intensive industries should monitor both shipping intelligence and official releases for revisions.

Attribution and limits of this report

This article is based on a Goldman Sachs client note cited in CNBC’s Aug. 28, 2026 report and on secondary reporting that referenced the same Goldman analysis. Statements about volumes, the March trough and the rise in dark crossings are attributed to Goldman Sachs as reported by CNBC. Where other outlets reported similar figures or broader context, those points are noted but not treated as independent confirmation of Goldman’s internal calculations.

“The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict.”

This exact sentence appears in the client-note quote cited in CNBC’s coverage and is reproduced here as an attributed quotation from Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and colleagues, as reported by CNBC.

Unresolved differences between public trackers, US official estimates and Goldman’s reconstructed numbers remain. Readers should expect revisions as vessels reappear on trackers or as governments publish updated export tallies.