Sunday, October 29, 2023

Germany faces $960bn climate change cost by 2050, says study.

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A new study has revealed that climate change could cost Germany up to €900 billion ($960bn) in cumulative economic damage by mid-century. The analysis was conducted by the economic research company Prognos, the Institute for Economic Structures Research, and the Institute for Ecological Economic Research. The report was released during discussions on how Berlin could cut greenhouse gas emissions in challenging sectors such as transportation. The German economy and environment ministries cited the study as showing that extreme heat, drought, and floods could cost between €280 billion ($300bn) and €900 billion between 2022 and 2050, depending on the extent of global warming.

The costs of climate change include declining farm yields, damage or destruction of buildings and infrastructure due to heavy rain and flooding, impairment of goods transport, and impacts on the health system. However, the scenarios are not exact predictions because some repercussions of climate change, such as reductions in the quality of life, are hard to quantify economically. The study warned that “the costs of climate change may turn out to be much higher than determined by the scenarios in the model.”

Climate change and extreme weather have already cost Germany at least €145 billion ($155bn) from 2000 to 2021, €80 billion ($85bn) of which were in the past five years alone, including the 2021 floods in the states of Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia. The economy ministry stated that the costs of expected damage could be reduced completely through climate adaptation measures, such as carbon storing, if climate change was only mild. The study found that about 60 percent to 80 percent of the costs could be prevented under such measures depending on how strongly the climate would change.

The report did not mention how much climate adaptation measures could cost the federal and state governments. Environmentalists say that Germany’s climate policy has taken a back seat as Europe grapples with an energy crisis, driven in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For many European nations, including Germany, the crisis is forcing a return to dirtier fuels, such as coal.

As Berlin works on a climate adaptation strategy soon to be presented by the environment ministry, it is clear that Germany must take urgent action to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. The country has set ambitious targets to reduce its emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels and achieve net-zero emissions by 2045. To achieve these goals, Germany must transition to renewable energy sources and invest in sustainable infrastructure and transportation systems.

Germany’s transition to renewable energy has been a success story in recent years. The country has increased its share of renewable energy in electricity generation from around 6 percent in 2000 to over 40 percent in 2020. However, there is still much work to be done to decarbonize other sectors such as transportation, industry, and buildings.

Transportation is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuels. However, there are several measures that Germany can take to reduce its emissions from transportation. These include promoting electric vehicles, investing in public transportation systems, and encouraging cycling and walking. Germany has already made progress in these areas, but more needs to be done to accelerate the transition to sustainable transportation.

In addition to reducing emissions from transportation, Germany must also invest in sustainable infrastructure and buildings. This includes retrofitting existing buildings to improve energy efficiency and constructing new buildings that meet high sustainability standards. Sustainable infrastructure projects such as green roofs, rain gardens, and permeable pavements can also help mitigate the effects of climate change by reducing stormwater runoff and urban heat island effects.

In conclusion, the new study highlights the urgent need for Germany to take action on climate change. The costs of inaction are too high, both economically and environmentally. Germany must continue its transition to renewable energy sources and invest in sustainable infrastructure and transportation systems to achieve its ambitious emissions reduction targets. By doing so, Germany can lead the way in the fight against climate change and set an example for other countries to follow.

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